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Is The Uk Set For A House Price Crash After Lockdown?

With the whole world undergoing a crisis because of the pandemic caused by COVID-19, how is the real estate industry going to be affected? Is the UK ready for a price crash of estates on sale?

The Property Market

Property markets are beginning to open particularly in England, Scotland, Northern island and Wales somehow relaxed its restriction. This means that in-house viewings have started once again and that buyers all over UK are able to buy a house and move from one place to the other.

There is a rough estimate of about 700,000 moves within the UK for the year 2020 but there was a 3% decrease as compared to a year ago. About 1/8 of the buyers opted to put off moving because of the recent lockdown. The present pandemic situation makes the people uncomfortable with moving and are waiting for further developments before continuing their plans.

Are the House Prices going to Change?

a saleswoman or estate agent shows a couple around a home with new kitchen

It might be too early just yet to predict an upcoming house price crash but with the recent figures reported, the prices are currently going down. House prices growth reportedly fell from 3.7% to about 1.7% last May.

Prior to the lockdown, the real estate market has been growing quite steadily with economic provisions that aims to support the industry. After the lockdown, the safety measures and limits set by the government has a great impact on the flow of housing transactions. It is expected that this trend will go on for some time until the people became comfortable and the economy recovers from the side effect of the pandemic.

There are different predictions as to whether the property market will be able to bounce back relatively fast after this setback. Majority of these predictions says that there would be a cold price drop by at more or less than 5% this year before seeing the light again on 2021 and increase by about 1.5% to 3%.

The Struggling Borrowers

The lockdown caused millions of jobs to be paused hence the flow of income within a household is cut. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced last month that the borrower’s mortgage payment holiday will be extended further for 3 months or their payments can be made staggered. This is to help those who are financially unstable due to the coronavirus.

References:

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/1399619/woolnough-house-price-correction-record-crash

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52888991

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/property/1291532/Housing-market-UK-house-prices-coronavirus-lockdown-rent-crisis

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Property news

House sales drying up

Interesting report on the BBC today about how RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) is viewing the latest property market.  The headline says ‘property market stagnating’ but what does that really mean?  The cause for this headline is the latest monthly data on stock levels – ie houses available for sale.

on average, each estate agent has just 43 properties for sale on its books, the lowest number recorded since the methodology began in 1994

They also say that the number of people registering to buy and the actual number of sales is way down.  They did say however

because of the shortage of housing, it said prices in many parts of the UK are continuing to accelerate.

As usual there is a north/south divide with prices dropping in central London but being quite strong in the North West.

There is no sign of immediate relief

“For the time being, it is hard to see any major impetus for change in the market, something also being reflected in the flat trend in transaction levels.”

Earlier this week, the Office for National Statistics said house prices grew at 5.8% in the year to February, a small rise on the previous month.  However, both Nationwide and the Halifax have said that house price inflation is moderating.